A six-part series on conflict, state fragility, resource pressure, and the structures that keep turning local crises into regional ones. I have traveled through parts of the Middle East: Israel, the West Bank, Jordan, Lebanon, and Dubai. Travel does not make anyone an authority on a region this large or…
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The AI buildout is moving from a spending test to a financing test. Lot’s of AI action today, July 28, 2026… A recent post by LoRosha, “NVIDIA–CXMT Twin-Trigger Convergence: A Financing-Risk and Supply-Risk Repricing”, connects two developments that reached semiconductor investors at about the same time. The first was a…
Comments closedWhy a richer developing world is in everyone’s interest In 1990, about 2.3 billion people lived in extreme poverty. By 2025 that figure had fallen to roughly 830 million (World Bank, 2025), even as the world added more than two and a half billion people along the way (UN World…
Comments closedHow AI turns one question into a systems view A small business owner asks the model whether she should open a second café. The answer comes back with the cash-flow math, yes. But also with the lease timing, the staffing lead time, the risk that two locations split her customers…
Comments closedOr: what we actually mean when we say “AI” in 2026. In November 2022, ChatGPT reached one hundred million users in two months, faster than any product in history. Today, that chatbot is the simplest thing AI does. When most people picture AI, they picture a chat window: type a…
Comments closedThe architecture of risk and reward. In 2015, Beijing published a document called Made in China 2025. It named ten industries: advanced manufacturing, aerospace, biotech, new-energy vehicles, AI hardware, robotics, and several others. It set targets, timelines, and financing. It coordinated ministries, state-owned enterprises, banks, universities, and provincial governments around…
Comments closedIntroduction to a new series on AI and its ecosystem I mentioned in a recent note that I was working on a new series on the AI ecosystem. This is the first post. It is an introduction: what the series is, what it is not, and why it is worth…
Comments closedA Boeing 787, an ore-testing lab, and the chemistry behind half your dinner. Three things held up by villages of expertise no country could replicate — and what happens when one thread breaks. Bernard Philippe Markowicz May 16, 2026 In March 2021, a fire broke out in a single building…
Comments closedIt’s the topology, not the geography Post 4 of a series on globalization, concentration, and strategic de-risking. On July 19, 2024, a flawed software update from a single cybersecurity vendor, CrowdStrike, took roughly 8.5 million Windows machines offline in about two hours: Hospitals turned away patients. Delta cancelled thousands of flights and…
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